I still maintain that demographics are destiny. But apparently SUSA, my former fave, underestimated the AA turnout in both states by about 15%. Also, I believe they parallelled Indiana’s demographics to Pennsylvania, when in fact, they are closer to Missouri. Hence, the incredibly inaccurate predictions for both states.
What’s amazing, despite the fact that the corporate media and Obama’s supporters will certainly resume their cries for Hillary to drop out, is that nothing much has changed. Senator Clinton held her constituency, and Senator Obama held his – but not as strongly. In fact, Obama’s showed signs of weakness. Demographically speaking, a 20-25 point Obama blowout was expected in North Carolina, and not so long ago, Senator Obama himself was referring to Indiana as a potential tiebreaker between Clinton’s victory in PA and his in NC. Moreover, hundreds of thousands of early voters (40% African American) cast their ballots in North Carolina, many before Wright did his damage.
The results from last night, frankly, are not encouraging for either candidate. I believe that Hillary Clinton is by far the strongest in the General Election against McCain, but I do not trust the Democratic Party at this point to realize that Obama cannot get enough Clinton Dems, Independents and Republicans to win in November. (He only got 40% of the white vote in Indiana, for example.) I feel that they are doing everything in their power to hand the nomination to him on a silver platter, including pretending that Florida and Michigan do not exist in order to give Obama a larger lead.
In addition, I resent in the strongest manner the way Obama has gamed the system. His strategy of race-baiting was a two-fer: He smeared the Clintons as racists not only to weaken Hillary’s reputation, but to take his AA support to impossible levels. He knew that the corporate media, always and forever suffering from Clinton Derangement Syndrome, would enable his efforts.
Obama used that firewall of 90% AA support to create those 11 victories in a row, and to make it seem like he is the inevitable winner. It was a disgusting tactic, and it worked in the primaries.
But it will not work in the General Election, because Obama’s coalition will not hold against McCain. What will Obama do then, once he can no longer blame absolutely everything on Hillary Clinton (IACF)?
This fight should go to the convention, as so many close races have done before, and Hillary should be allowed to show her strength in must-win Democratic states. Then, the superdelegates will decide.
I hope they make the right choice, but I must say, I’m not optimistic. (Maybe it’s the allergy medicine talking.)
Tune in May 20th (the Oregon and West Virgina primarie) for another episode of…”As the Democrats Turn!”